託佛勒Wealth 3.0:下一波財富狂潮

Accenture, the management consultancy, has dubbed him the third most influential voice among business leaders, after Bill Gates and Peter Drucker. He has also been described in the Financial Times as the“world's most famous futurologist”. People's Daily classes him among the 50 foreigners that shaped modern China.

艾文託佛勒全球最具影響力人士之一, 僅次於比爾.蓋茲與彼得.杜拉克

─Accenture管理顧問公司

●《Wealth 3.0》在德國義大利熱銷,而在日 本、印度和中國等地,託佛勒已等同先知。           ─英國《金融時報

艾文.託佛勒(Alvin Toffler)是當今最具影響力的社會思想家,其妻海蒂.託佛勒與艾文結識大學時代,也是一位著名的未來學者。兩人於1970年出版《未來的衝擊》(Future Shock),1980年出版《第三波》(The Third Wave),1990年出版《大未來》(Powershift)等「未來三部曲」,成爲未來學巨擘,享譽全球,對當今社會思潮有廣泛且深遠的影響。2006年,他們再度推出新作《Wealth 3.0:託佛勒 財富革命》(Revolutionary Wealth),倡議「非貨幣財富」的觀念,扭轉了時下人們對於財富的思維

在他們的著作中,「財富」的定義被反覆討論:

As the Mexican author Gabriel Zaid has written,“Wealth is above all an accumulation of possibilities.” Certain forms of wealth are more or less universally regarded as“good”. Health. A strong and loving family. Respect from those we respect. Few would deny that these are wealth, even if they don't easily fit into the calculations of economists.

In everyday usage, however, the term (wealth) usually refers, all too narrowly, to financial assets, and often carries a connotation of excess.

For some, wealth may mean having a bit more than their subjectively perceived need, whatever that is. For others no amount suffices. Among the poor, matters are less subjective. For the mother whose child is starving, a daily handful of rice may be wealth beyond measure. Whatever else it means, therefore, wealth, at least as used here, doesn't just mean a second Ferrari.

Nor is wealth synonymous with money, as popular misconception might have it. ….In fact, wealth can sometimes buy things money cannot. …In any case, wealth is the child of desire, which is yet another reason some people detest the very thought of it.

託佛勒夫婦指出,長久以來,人們只注意能看得見、可以計算、方便流通的「貨幣系統(monetary system)」對人類經濟的影響,而忽略了「非貨幣系統」的重要性。但事實上,我們常常身處「非貨幣系統」裡而不自知,因爲舉凡免費的、自願性或者無償的工作,都可以算在「非貨幣系統」裡。舉例來說,我們在網路上免費下載音樂程式軟體,或者利用公用網路傳輸資料聯繫客戶等工作,這些免費的使用權(非貨幣財富),不知不覺中,讓我們省下了大量金錢(貨幣財富)。

在這個什麼東西都漲的年代,「免費」所代表意義,不僅僅是不須付錢,其背後更代表了令人難以想像的財富和機會。試想,如果我們把每個人都擁有的隱性財富都換成實質的財富,財富的總額將會非常驚人;如果我們瞭解到「非貨幣系統」有着幾乎等同於「貨幣系統」的價值,並且能兼顧和利用兩者勢必能創造出更大的財富價值,因此,「非貨幣系統」在未來將會受到越來越多的注意。

如何串連「貨幣系統」與「非貨幣系統」呢?託佛勒指出,「新財富系統」的誕生,「知識」將扮演重要地位。

Knowledge relationships are being transformed with respect to availability. As Toffler states, never before have we been able to instantly access virtually unlimited amounts of any kind of information for virtually zero cost.

「知識」具備不消耗、無衝突密集化、易結合、易散播、可攜帶等特質,據託佛勒的說法是,可以引動一種比工業革命範圍更廣、影響更全面的「前所未有的強大財富系統」,伴隨這種新系統而來的,將是一種「新文明」,並且「在不久的未來將改寫我們的生活、企業全世界」。

「新財富系統」中蘊含了創新的經營概念。其中,最被託佛勒看好的,就是所謂的「產消合一」(prosumers)。

託佛勒早在1980年就將「生產者(producer)」和「消費者(consumer)」兩個字合成爲“prosumer”這個新字。The Tofflers explain that we are becoming a nation of “prosumers,” consuming what we ourselves produce, and argue that we have all taken on“third jobs”--work we unwittingly do without pay for some of the biggest corporations in the country. The unpaid work all of us do, even without knowing it, makes us “prosumers”.

在這種「產消合一」的概念下,企業可以將部分的生產活動轉嫁到消費者身上,衍伸出更靈活的營運模式;而消費者也可以從參與生產,得到更符合自己需求的商品與服務,甚至獲取利潤。譬如:數以萬計的部落玩家,如今不僅消費媒體,也提供資訊;在自助餐廳裡,顧客既是消費者,也是服務自己的人;在提款機前,顧客不但是銀行客戶,也扮演着櫃員角色

託佛勒夫婦相信,未來始終多變,面對這些變化,與其怨嘆與恐懼,不如設法亂局中爲自己找到迎向未來財富的機會──這是兩位舉足輕重的未來學家,總是不斷重申的觀念。

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